The $100 Billion Mirage: Reality-Checking Nvidia’s Strategic Pivot with OpenAI
"Nvidia's $100 billion megadeal with OpenAI faces a reality check. Jensen Huang confirms a 'huge' but reduced investment amid concerns over OpenAI's"
By Vansware Intelligence Desk | January 31, 2026
SANTA CLARA, CA — For months, the tech world has been intoxicated by a single number: $100 billion. Following a high-profile Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in late 2025, rumors swirled that Nvidia was prepared to write a check larger than the GDP of many nations to secure the future of Sam Altman’s OpenAI.
However, as of late January 2026, the "megadeal" has officially entered a state of strategic cooling. In a press briefing in Taipei on Saturday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang addressed the speculation head-on. While confirming that Nvidia is prepared to make its "largest investment ever" in OpenAI, he flatly dismissed the $100 billion figure as "nonsense."
1.Infrastructure vs. Equity
To understand why the $100 billion figure was both real and "fake," you have to look at the math behind the curtain.
The Original Vision: In September 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI outlined a plan to deploy 10 gigawatts of computing power. This massive data center project—essentially an "AI Factory"—was estimated to cost roughly $100 billion in total capital expenditures over several years.
The Reality Check: While Nvidia intended to support this deployment, internal skepticism at the chip giant has "stalled" the formalization of that specific $100 billion commitment. According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia executives voiced concerns over OpenAI’s aggressive cash burn and the lack of a clear path to profitability.
2. Deep Dive: Why the Standoff?
Nvidia remains OpenAI's most critical partner, but the 2026 fiscal climate has forced a move toward "Transaction Realism."
A. The "Circular Financing" Concern
Critics, including some of Nvidia’s own board members, have grown wary of "circular" deals. In these arrangements, Nvidia invests billions in OpenAI, which OpenAI then immediately hands back to Nvidia to buy Vera Rubin Blackwell chips. While this inflates Nvidia's revenue, it creates a systemic risk if the AI bubble loses steam.
B. Competition and Discipline
Jensen Huang has privately expressed concern over OpenAI’s lack of financial discipline. OpenAI's 2025 revenue run rate reached an impressive $20 billion, yet its annual spending is projected to exceed $17 billion in 2026, with losses potentially hitting $14 billion. With rivals like Anthropic and Google narrowing the gap, Nvidia is rethinking putting all its eggs in the Altman basket.
3.What is the "Huge" Investment?
If it’s not $100 billion, what is it? The current funding round for OpenAI is aiming for a valuation near $830 billion.
The New Figure: Sources indicate Nvidia is discussing an equity investment in the tens of billions (likely between $20B and $30B), rather than the non-binding $100B infrastructure pledge.
Strategic Hedging: Nvidia is simultaneously doubling down on its $10 billion stake in Anthropic. By participating in OpenAI's current round at a "reduced" (but still historic) scale, Nvidia keeps its seat at the table without assuming the risk of a $100B single-point failure.
| Metric (Est. 2026) | OpenAI Status | Nvidia's Stance |
| Projected Losses | -$14 Billion | "Concerned" |
| Infrastructure Goal | 10 GW | "Stalled / Under Review" |
| New Funding Valuation | $830 Billion | "Will participate" |
| Chip Loyalty | 100% Nvidia | Shifting toward custom silicon |
4. Is OpenAI Still "The One"?
Proponents of the $100 billion deal argue that Nvidia cannot afford to let OpenAI stall.
The Dominance Factor: OpenAI is the largest driver of GPU demand. If OpenAI scales back its ambitions due to a lack of capital, Nvidia's quarterly earnings will take a direct hit.
The AGI Race: Sam Altman’s "Stargate" project requires unprecedented capital. If Nvidia pulls back, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds or SoftBank (already mulling a $30B injection) could step in and dictate the next era of AI hardware.
5. Transactional Diplomacy
The "cooling" of the $100 billion deal is a sign that the AI industry is maturing. We are moving from the "Hype Era" of unlimited checks to the "Efficiency Era" of strategic equity. Nvidia will remain OpenAI’s preferred partner for the next decade, but the relationship is shifting from a blind alliance to a disciplined, transaction-based partnership.
LSI Keywords: Nvidia OpenAI equity round, Jensen Huang Taipei press conference, AI data center 10GW, Sam Altman funding valuation 2026, Vera Rubin GPU deployment.